Patrick Gerland
Patrick Gerland
Chief, Population Estimates and Projections Section, Population Division, DESA, United Nations
Adresse e-mail validée de un.org - Page d'accueil
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World population stabilization unlikely this century
P Gerland, AE Raftery, H Ševčíková, N Li, D Gu, T Spoorenberg, L Alkema, ...
Science 346 (6206), 234-237, 2014
12582014
Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter …
D You, L Hug, S Ejdemyr, P Idele, D Hogan, C Mathers, P Gerland, ...
The Lancet 386 (10010), 2275-2286, 2015
5542015
Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries
AE Raftery, N Li, H Ševčíková, P Gerland, GK Heilig
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (35), 13915-13921, 2012
2702012
Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries
L Alkema, AE Raftery, P Gerland, SJ Clark, F Pelletier, T Buettner, ...
Demography 48 (3), 815-839, 2011
2462011
Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries
AE Raftery, JL Chunn, P Gerland, H Ševčíková
Demography 50 (3), 777-801, 2013
1612013
Bayesian population projections for the United Nations
AE Raftery, L Alkema, P Gerland
Statistical science: a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical …, 2014
1202014
Global trends in AIDS mortality
J Bongaarts
Population and Development Review, 21-45, 1996
1081996
Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009
T Brown, L Bao, AE Raftery, JA Salomon, RF Baggaley, J Stover, ...
Sexually transmitted infections 86 (Suppl 2), ii3-ii10, 2010
1012010
Extending the Lee-Carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections
N Li, R Lee, P Gerland
Demography 50 (6), 2037-2051, 2013
902013
Changes in cause-specific neonatal and 1–59-month child mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative survey
SA Fadel, R Rasaily, S Awasthi, R Begum, RE Black, H Gelband, ...
The Lancet 390 (10106), 1972-1980, 2017
752017
Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels
F Chao, P Gerland, AR Cook, L Alkema
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (19), 9303-9311, 2019
722019
Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
AE Raftery, N Lalic, P Gerland
Demographic research 30, 795, 2014
682014
United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with …
D You, L Hug, S Ejdemyr, P Idele, D Hogan, C Mathers, P Gerland, ...
Lancet 386 (10010), 2275-2286, 2015
632015
Child mortality estimation: a global overview of infant and child mortality age patterns in light of new empirical data
M Guillot, P Gerland, F Pelletier, A Saabneh
PLoS Med 9 (8), e1001299, 2012
612012
Adult mortality in Africa
G Reniers, B Masquelier, P Gerland
International handbook of adult mortality, 151-170, 2011
522011
Age-specific mortality and fertility rates for probabilistic population projections
H Ševčíková, N Li, V Kantorová, P Gerland, AE Raftery
Dynamic demographic analysis, 285-310, 2016
512016
Age-specific and sex-specific adult mortality risk in India in 2014: analysis of 0· 27 million nationally surveyed deaths and demographic estimates from 597 districts
U Ram, P Jha, P Gerland, RJ Hum, P Rodriguez, W Suraweera, K Kumar, ...
The Lancet Global Health 3 (12), e767-e775, 2015
462015
Reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data
MC Wheldon, AE Raftery, SJ Clark, P Gerland
Journal of the American Statistical Association 108 (501), 96-110, 2013
422013
Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa
L Alkema, AE Raftery, P Gerland, SJ Clark, F Pelletier
Demographic research 26 (15), 2012
382012
Patterns of fertility decline and the impact of alternative scenarios of future fertility change in sub-Saharan Africa
P Gerland, A Biddlecom, V Kantorová
Population and Development Review 43, 21-38, 2017
352017
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